Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.025907 20.661596 22.464195 24.616209 27.140084 30.038134 33.665622
2024-10-13 16.534733 18.684508 21.226841 24.519814 28.775848 34.253355 42.140950
2024-10-20 14.644562 17.006508 19.942181 23.982720 29.624264 37.633810 50.818249
2024-10-27 13.819637 16.462344 19.906445 24.943077 32.574341 44.695184 68.369994
2024-11-03 12.797626 15.509336 19.160532 24.736783 33.722590 49.355025 85.058930
2024-11-10 12.056267 14.832106 18.679279 24.792608 35.240879 55.185828 109.732461
2024-11-17 11.472857 14.302320 18.326219 24.957337 36.946208 62.109753 147.186374
2024-11-24 10.964915 13.825335 17.985415 25.066974 38.555112 69.656020 204.413397
2024-12-01 10.441260 13.279052 17.477633 24.808411 39.372458 75.784681 279.679639
2024-12-08 10.041220 12.881257 17.156750 24.819780 40.742247 84.365509 435.578686
2024-12-15 9.637473 12.448291 16.738808 24.593885 41.538804 91.896424 715.942903
2024-12-22 9.266711 12.040857 16.326998 24.323425 42.172046 99.538619 1401.989891
2024-12-29 8.931158 11.672925 15.960060 24.110908 42.953108 108.905281 5438.197690
2025-01-05 8.635712 11.350679 15.645537 23.964339 43.887021 120.316295 NaN
2025-01-12 8.297073 10.943622 15.160515 23.424046 43.667138 126.289578 NaN
2025-01-19 8.223956 10.949111 15.376637 24.335145 47.732735 163.455840 NaN
2025-01-26 7.981106 10.670685 15.079219 24.132138 48.511003 182.043351 NaN
2025-02-02 7.793769 10.472294 14.909072 24.183354 50.117596 213.031299 NaN
2025-02-09 7.634223 10.310933 14.793389 24.340232 52.149180 258.307045 NaN
2025-02-16 7.477705 10.146905 14.661552 24.444841 54.070857 316.621931 NaN
2025-02-23 7.284494 9.913987 14.389680 24.196747 54.660636 362.449545 NaN
2025-03-02 7.136044 9.749432 14.234640 24.207547 56.268754 451.647587 NaN
2025-03-09 6.967919 9.545398 13.994710 23.990892 56.934605 535.902195 NaN